TOP101 – from macro to micro view
The outlook of the Estonian central bank Eesti Pank on the economy is positive. While the central bank projects that 2024 will end with a slight decline, the growth forecast for the real economy for the next two years is 1.9 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively. At the same time, the inflation is forecast to remain in the range of 3.5 to 4 percent, which is partly attributable to tax hikes. Unemployment rate is forecast to remain stable and Eesti Pank estimates that it will be between 7.6 and 7.7 percent.
The companies' outlook for the economic situation is more pessimistic. Persistently high inflation and interest rates, planned tax increases and the challenging economic situation in the European region already had an impact on the value of companies in this year's TOP101. The Stoxx 600 index grew by 7 percent in the first quarter of 2024, but the growth in the second and third quarters was close to zero.
The total value of the companies in the TOP101 ranking did not increase significantly and has remained essentially unchanged compared to the previous year at 31 billion euros. GDP in current prices, on the other hand, has continued its growth, reaching 38.2 billion euros in 2023. The gap between the total value of TOP101 companies and GDP is also widening, reflecting how prices increases are driving the nominal growth, but not valuations. Zooming out, economic growth in the European Union in the first half of 2024 was marked by uncertainty and was even alarming, but growth in the third quarter exceeded estimates by 20 basis points. In Germany GDP was up by 0.2 percent. Growth picked up also in France and Spain. This unexpected economic growth has created hope for the business sector in the European Union, simultaneously lowering expectations for further interest rate cuts. Yet, this change of sentiment didn’t transfer so much to Estonia.
The sales revenue of TOP101 companies has been highly volatile in recent years, with growth ranging between -3% and 27%. The graph above illustrates how changes in revenue correlate with inflation rates and consumer spending changes. It is important to note that these two indicators do not fully explain the revenue volatility, as changes in exports, the general economic environment, and other external factors have not been taken into account. The graph shows that changes in revenue tend to move in the same direction as consumption, though at different rates. Part of this difference can be explained by inflation, as the changes are in nominal sales revenue, meaning that even during a decline in consumption, a growth trend may still be observed, since higher prices can offset the reduction in consumption. Looking ahead, it is estimated that consumption will remain relatively stable and inflation will remain balanced. At best it indicates a neutral outlook for the sales revenue of the largest Estonian companies, although the general economic situation reinforces rather negative expectations.
The comparison of the value of business sectors is significantly affected by the current economic environment. The sharp decline in demand for wood products led to a deterioration in the financial performance of several wood industry companies, and, as a result, the share of the industrial production sector fell by 5.1 percent. At the same time, inflation-fuelled price rise enabled companies in the consumer goods and services sectors to maintain or increase their profitability. For example, the car trade sector was the main factor behind the 1.9 percent increase in the share of the consumer goods sector. The financial services sector increased its share and currently accounts for 21.9 percent of the value in TOP101 ranking.
In 2023 the minimum company value that made a company eligible for admittance in the TOP101 ranking was 84.3 million euros. In the 2024 ranking, the threshold was 81.8 million euros, ie the threshold decreased by 2.5 million euros. In the 2024 TOP101, there were nine companies whose value exceeded one billion euros. It is the same as in the 2023 ranking. Due to the change of methodology, several companies are back in the TOP101, the largest of which are Viru Keemia Grupp and Circle K.