TopTech 2025: Waiting for the new wave

Rando Rannus

Siena Secondary Fund, Partner

Economically, the recent years have been challenging for Estonia with the second highest inflation rate in the EU as of July 2025 and the GDP growth of just 0.9% in Q2 of this year. Our startup ecosystem mirrors that and the broader Europe’s valuation reset following the post-covid peak of 2021 and 2022. If we look at the number of startups launched in recent years, there is definitely some decline. Similar stagnation can be seen in the Toptech list over the years - more or less the same names in the top rankings. Where to look for the new wave of success stories?

As the fundamentals that have fueled the growth of our startup industry have remained intact - world class digital government with a dense community of founders and capital providers - we should look at how to utilize it for greater benefit. That ecosystem is poised to ignite the next growth cycle, leveraging seasoned founders, cross‑border scale, success stories, and talent.

Our market is small; our network is not. Through e‑Residency and the Startup Visa Program, expats have helped to fuel the ecosystem - investing, mentoring, and hiring across borders. Their global connections transform constraints into competitive advantage and help Estonian startups scale worldwide. And for that we already have proof with the likes of Yolo Group, Verge Motorcycles, Glia, and Modash - all founded in Estonia, by expats, thinking global. It is the new success stories that should build the new growth profile of the Estonian startup ecosystem, from a new angle, with a fresh view.

E‑Residency is a magnet for entrepreneurship. With a secure digital ID and qualified e‑signature reducing friction founders can incorporate and run an EU company entirely online. While this is not the startup visa, the infrastructure paves the way for significantly lower entry barriers for expatriates to get rooted in our remote-first entrepreneurial ecosystem. With 125k+ e‑residents and 36k+ companies founded by them, Estonia’s entrepreneurial footprint now exceeds its 1.37m population - global‑first founders, local teams, and mixed local‑foreign capital - fueling the next wave of growth.

E‑Residency handles the paperwork at a distance; the Startup Visa brings the people on the ground. The program fast-tracks founders and key employees to relocate to Estonia and embed in the ecosystem, accelerating growth and global ambition. Together, digital‑first governance and fast‑track relocation lower entry barriers, cut bureaucracy, and let teams focus on building great products and serving customers, not paperwork.

Estonia’s ambitions for digitalisation and fast‑tracking the startup ecosystem extend beyond our borders. As the EU debates how to create a truly unified single market and jurisdiction, the EU Inc idea - a standardised, digital‑first EU company - would reduce compliance friction in sales, hiring, and financing via e‑signatures and unified processes. With our track record, Estonia can lead, enabling faster and cheaper expansion across the whole EU market by exporting our digital‑first playbook.

Putting the puzzle together, the picture is clear. Estonia hasn’t been derailed from its fundamentals - it has clarified and reinforced them. Expatriates are creating global companies, domiciled in Estonia, that can become the new stepping stones for the cohorts to come. E‑Residency and the Startup Visa reduce friction from first signature to first hire. And in the EU, Estonia is among the most credible voices for translating its national playbook into the 28th regime. This is less about one more unicorn and more about an ecosystem that reliably produces the next cohorts of success stories. The mandate is straightforward: simplify, digitalise, and think global by default.